MUMBAI: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 0.9 percent in September to 183.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.2 percent decline in August and a 0.5 percent increase in July. Seven of the eight components contributed positively to the index in September.

"After a disappointing August, the Leading Economic Index for India rebounded in September, suggesting that momentum in the economy continues," said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board. "Nevertheless, India's economic recovery for the rest of this year still faces downside risks, as highlighted by surprisingly weak capital goods production as well as car sales in the third quarter – a sign that domestic demand remains sluggish."

Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added: "India's economic growth is likely to exceed 5 percent for 2014 as increased confidence has supported business investment, exports grew stronger, and corporate profitability strengthened. Nevertheless, the pace at which these positive factors will last depends on the performance of the global economy and the new government's commitment to accelerate India's stalled economic reforms."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.1 percent in September to 203.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent decline in August and a 0.4 percent decline in July. Two of the four components contributed positively to the index in September.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
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