NDA will marginally fall short of majority but form government

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IANS Election Special | 10 Mar, 2019
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will fall marginally short of a majority in the Lok Sabha but will comfortably form the government with post poll tie-ups. In the eventuality of no Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance of opposition parties) in Uttar Pradesh, the Narendra Modi-led NDA will walk home with over 300 Lok Sabha seats.

According to the latest State of the Nation opinion poll conducted by CVoter for IANS, the battle in Uttar Pradesh will largely decide the complexion of the next Lok Sabha.

The poll was conducted in the month of March when the Modi government took the bold decision of carrying out aerial strike on Jaish-E-Mohammad (JeM) terror camp in Pakistan, leading to a new wave of nationalism across the country.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping to ride on this wave to drown the opposition and the opinion poll confirms that Prime Minister Modi is leading the race.

The poll has projected that the NDA will get 264 seats while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is expected to reach a tally of 141 and all other parties are expected to get 138 seats.

If there is no Mahagathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh, the NDA will get 307 seats and the UPA will settle for 139 and all other parties are expected to get 97.

In terms of seats, the BJP is expected to get 220 seats on its own and the allies are likely to get 44.

If NDA gets into a post poll alliance with parties like YSR Congress, Mizo National Front (MNF), Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS), the NDA tally will go up to 301.

In the UPA camp, the Congress is expected to get 86 and other partners will add up another 55.

If the UPA goes for post-poll alliance with parties like All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Left Democratic Front (LDF), MGB (Mahagathbandhan in UP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), its tally will go up to 226.

The BJP's tally in Uttar Pradesh is likely to come down to 29 from 71 if it is pitched against a Mahagathbandhan. If there is no such grand alliance, then the BJP is expected to match its 2014 performance and get 72 seats.

The BJP is expected to make major chunk of seats from Bihar (36, up from 22 in 2014), Gujarat (24, two down from all 26 seats in the state bagged by the BJP), Karnataka (16, one down from 2014), Madhya Pradesh (24, two down from 26 won last time), Maharashtra (36, 13 more than 23 won in 2014), Odisha (12, against only 1 last time) and Rajasthan (20, four down from 2014).

The Congress will improve its 2014 tally of 44 by getting most of the seats from Assam (7, up from 3 in 2014), Chhattisgarh (5 against only 1 in last election), Kerala (14, one more than 2014), Karnataka (9, same as last time), Jharkhand (5, a seat less than last time), Madhya Pradesh (5, against 3 last time), Maharashtra (7, a marginal improvement from 4 in 2014), Punjab (12 against 3 last time), Rajasthan (5, up from nil in 2014), Tamil Nadu (4 against nil last time) and Uttar Pradesh (4, up from 2).

In terms of vote share, the NDA is likely to get 31.1 percent of votes against 30.9 for the UPA. The other parties are likely to get 28 percent.