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Last updated: 16 Jan, 2025  

Screenshot 2025-01-16 at 3.20.06 PM.png The Falling Rupee – A Cause for Cautious Optimism

Bikky Khosla | 16 Jan, 2025

I feel that the recent fall of the Indian rupee to an all-time low against the US dollar, though may seem highly profitable to our exporters, is actually a worrying sign for the economy. While a weaker rupee makes Indian products cheaper on the global market, the broader picture is far more complicated than it appears.

No doubt exporters stand to gain from more competitive pricing, but a significant portion of our exporters, particularly in sectors like electronics, chemicals, and engineering goods, depend heavily on imported raw materials and components. 

With the rupee’s slide, these imports are becoming costlier, and actually eating into the profit margins of Indian manufacturers, which they have to pass on. So, while exporters may earn more in rupees, their overall costs too have risen considerably thus neutralizing any gains they might have made. This is a critical issue that cannot be ignored. 

Furthermore, delays in production, logistical hurdles, and bureaucratic red tape all play a significant role in diminishing the benefits of a weaker rupee. As much as the government promotes export growth, these systemic problems still remain an obstacle that needs urgent attention. The situation is even more concerning when we factor in our reliance on imports for essential commodities like crude oil, fertilizers, and electronics. A falling rupee is gradually making these imports significantly more expensive, increasing the trade deficit and putting inflationary pressure on the economy. 

Higher costs for crude oil, for example, have risen fuel prices, which directly have affected transportation and the cost of nearly everything. To address this, I believe the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has done what it can by tapping into its foreign exchange reserves, which have dropped by $70 billion from their peak. However, this intervention is only a temporary fix, and I think more concrete measures are needed. For instance, imposing higher import tariffs on non-essential goods could reduce demand for imports, easing some pressure on the rupee. Additionally, it could encourage domestic manufacturing, in line with the government's “Atmanirbhar Bharat” initiative. 

In conclusion, while the falling rupee has presented certain opportunities for exporters, I think it has also brought significant risks and challenges that could hurt the economy in the long run. The government must act swiftly and effectively to address these issues, creating an environment where the benefits of a weaker rupee are fully realized without causing harm to the economy.

I invite your opinions. 

 
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