Bikky Khosla | 26 Jul, 2022
The Indian rupee has begun this week's
trading session by inching slightly higher to close below 80 against the US
dollar. This, however, is hardly encouraging as the currency has lost a
whopping 7% from the start of 2022, and according to a recent report, it may
fall further to 82 per dollar in the near term. But the RBI is of the view that
the movement of Rupee has remained 'relatively smooth and
orderly'.
A weakening Rupee, is, no
doubt a concern as it may result in higher prices of importing goods including crude
oil, which in turn will increase the trade gap and short-term inflation as well
as higher interest rates as a result of RBI's effort to bring down prices, but
according to some economy watchers, the Rupee depreciation is likely to benefit
the country’s export sector even amid the environment of weak
global demand.
Meanwhile,
according to reports, the RBI – which "can afford to spend even $100 billion
more if required" – is ready to defend the currency from extreme volatility. The
central bank has recently allowed trade settlements between India and other
countries in Rupee. This is a positive move and in
synchronization of which the Centre should clarify on benefits on such export
transactions which were earlier available only on foreign currency export transactions.
Meanwhile,
foreign
investors have turned net buyers in July, with a net investment amount of
nearly Rs 1,100 crore in Indian equities. This is encouraging, particularly in
the background of a net withdrawal of Rs 50,145 crore in the previous month. It
is also a relief that raw material prices have normalised now, our export
competitor China’s Yuan has witnessed a similar depreciation along with Rupee,
and more importantly the fundamentals of the Indian economy is still strong.
I
invite your opinions.