Bikky Khosla | 20 Jan, 2015
The long wait is finally over. Last week, the RBI cut
interest rates for the first time in nearly two years. The unexpected move
ahead of the scheduled monetary policy announcement has been cheered up by the
Indian industry. Burdened with high interest rates, the industry was eagerly
waiting for such a step, particularly with industrial production struggling to
pick up its pace.
The RBI governor has said that the decision is based on
easing inflation pressure, driven by fall in prices of vegetables and global
crude oil prices as well as on the reiteration of the Centre of its
"commitment to adhering to its fiscal deficit target". Recently, the
finance minister publicly criticized the RBI for sticking to a tight monetary
policy, terming it as the "singular factor" responsible for the
manufacturing slowdown. With the rate cut, the ball is now in the government's
court.
The biggest question is - will the RBI rate cut be
transmitted to the lending rate cut by banks? The repo rate is the rate at
which the RBI lends to the commercial banks and therefore it is very likely
that the lending rates would come down sooner or later. In fact, some state-run
banks have already reduced their lending rates, while some others have
indicated that they would follow suit. This week several lenders are scheduled
to hold meetings to review their lending rate.
What is more important is that the rate cut, the first since
May 2013, may signal the start of a downward cycle in interest rates. In his
statement on the monetary policy, Rajan has hinted that subsequent policy
actions will be consistent with the changed stance. Some economists even
predict a rate cut by 75 basis points in the rest of the year. Such forecasts
sound logical, but a lot will depend on the government's effort towards pushing
growth.
High interest rates and difficulty in doing business are two
big enemies of investment and now with the first issue being addressed to some
extent, the Centre should do its best to take care of the second. The
forthcoming Budget should include strong measures to improve the business
environment. Serious thoughts must be given to increase investment on our poor
infrastructure and remove the supply side bottlenecks. In particular,
availability of inputs like power, land and minerals must be ensured. At the
same time, quality fiscal consolidation is also required.