IANS | 19 Jul, 2024
With demand for electricity in India expected to surge by a massive
eight per cent this year, the world’s demand is rising at its fastest rate in
years, driven by robust economic growth, intense heat waves and increasing
uptake of technologies that run on electricity such as EVs and heat pumps, a
new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
At the same time, renewables continue their rapid ascent, with solar PV
on course to set new records.
Global electricity demand is forecast to grow by around four per cent in
2024, up from 2.5 per cent in 2023, the IEA’s Electricity Mid-Year Update
finds.
This would represent the highest annual growth rate since 2007,
excluding the exceptional rebounds seen in the wake of the global financial
crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.
The strong increase in global electricity consumption is set to continue
into 2025, with growth around four per cent again, according to the report.
Renewable sources of electricity are also set to expand rapidly this year and
next, with their share of global electricity supply forecast to rise from 30
per cent in 2023 to 35 per cent in 2025.
The amount of electricity generated by renewables worldwide in 2025 is
forecast to eclipse the amount generated by coal for the first time. Solar PV
alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity
demand over 2024 and 2025 -- with solar and wind combined meeting as much as
three-quarters of the growth.
Despite the sharp increases in renewables, global power generation from
coal is unlikely to decline this year due to the strong growth in demand,
especially in China and India, according to the report.
As a result, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the global power sector
are plateauing, with a slight increase in 2024 followed by a decline in 2025.
However, considerable uncertainties remain: Chinese hydropower
production recovered strongly in the first half of 2024 from its 2023 low. If
this upward trend continues in the second half of the year, it could curb
coal-fired power generation and result in a slight decline in global power
sector emissions in 2024.
Some of the world’s major economies are registering particularly strong
increases in electricity consumption. Demand in India is expected to surge by a
massive eight per cent this year, driven by strong economic activity and
powerful heat waves.
China is also set to see significant demand growth of more than six per
cent, as a result of robust activity in the services industries and various
industrial sectors, including the manufacturing of clean energy technologies.
After declining in 2023 amid mild weather, electricity demand in the US
is forecast to rebound this year by three per cent amid steady economic growth,
rising demand for cooling and an expanding data centre sector.
By contrast, the European Union will see a more modest recovery in
electricity demand, with growth forecast at 1.7 per cent, following two
consecutive years of contraction amid the impacts of the energy crisis.
In many parts of the world, increasing use of air-conditioning will
remain a significant driver of electricity demand. Multiple regions faced
intense heat waves in the first half of 2024, which elevated demand and put
electricity systems under strain, the report finds.
“Growth in global electricity demand this year and next is set to be
among the fastest in the past two decades, highlighting the growing role of
electricity in our economies as well as the impacts of severe heat waves,” said
Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security.
“It’s encouraging to see clean energy’s share of the electricity mix
continuing to rise, but this needs to happen at a much faster rate to meet
international energy and climate goals. At the same time, it’s crucial to
expand and reinforce grids to provide citizens with secure and reliable
electricity supply -- and to implement higher energy efficiency standards to
reduce the impacts of increased cooling demand on power systems.”
With the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the electricity demand of
data centres is drawing increased attention, underscoring the need for more
reliable data and better stocktaking measures. The report highlights the wide
range of uncertainties concerning the electricity demand of data centres,
including the pace of deployment, the diverse and expanding uses of AI, and the
potential for energy efficiency improvements. Better collection of electricity
consumption data of the data centre sector will be essential to identify past
developments correctly and to better understand future trends.